Hanoi (VNA) – Vietnam’s gross domesticproduct (GDP) is expected to grow 5.34% this year under the first scenario set outby the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM).

The institute announced a report on the domesticeconomy in the first half of this year, and prospects for the second at aworkshop in Hanoi on July 10, where its three scenarios on the national economywere made public.  

The first assumes the global economic developmentmatches assessments of international organisations and Vietnam, under which thecountry’s export is projected to slide 5.64%, and its consumer price index(CPI) will rise 3.43%, with a trade surplus of 9.1 billion USD.

Under the second, given monetary and fiscal easingin Vietnam, the GDP growth is set at 5.72%, export is expected to decrease 3.66%,and the CPI is forecast to expand 3.87%, with a trade surplus of 10.3 billionUSD.

In the last where the global economy willsee positive changes, and Vietnam will take drastic actions in reform and management,the GDP is hoped to grow 6.46%, export will drop only 2.17%, the CPI will go up4.39%, and the trade surplus will stand at 6.8 billion USD.

According to the institute’s report, the first sixmonths have given Vietnam an idea of socio-economic requirements for the secondhalf as well as the coming years.

Head of the CIEM's General Research DepartmentNguyen Anh Duong called difficulties in the first two quarters “positivepressure” for the Government, ministries, agencies and localities to take moredrastic actions in management and reform in the time ahead.

CIEM Director Tran Thi Hong Minh said since thebeginning of this year, the Government has paid attention to perfectinginstitutions and policies, tapping investment resources for the nationaleconomy, and improving the business environment.

Despite the gap with the set target, the economicgrowth has seen improvements between quarters, with 3.28% in the first and 4.14in the second, she said, adding that the growth in H1 reached 3.72%.

In the six months, the total social investment exceeded1.35 quadrillion VND (57.05 billion USD), up 4.7% year-on-year. As of June 30,the disbursement rate of public investment reached 30.5% of the target assignedby the Prime Minister, higher than the 27.7% recorded in the same period lastyear. The country also attracted 13.43 billion USD in foreign direct investment(FDI), down 4.35%, while FDI disbursement went up 0.5%.

The total export value in the reviewed period wasestimated at 164.5 billion USD, down 12.1%, and import was 152.2 billion USD,down 18.2%, resulting in a trade surplus of over 12.2 billion USD.

Participants at the workshop looked into factorsthat may cause difficulties to the national socio-economic development in theremaining months, and proposed orientations and policy solutions./.