Vietnam forecasts trade surplus of 4 billion USD in H1
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), export turnover alone is projected to reach 215–217 billion USD, up approximately 13.8–14%. This results in an estimated trade surplus of 3.4–4 billion USD.
Vietnam’s import and export of goods. (Photo: VNA)
Hanoi (VNA) – Vietnam’s total import-export turnover in the first half of 2025 is estimated at 426–430 billion USD, representing an increase of 15.5–15.8% compared to the same period in 2024.
Strong growth across key export sectors
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), export turnover alone is projected to reach 215–217 billion USD, up approximately 13.8–14%. This results in an estimated trade surplus of 3.4–4 billion USD. Compared to the export growth scenario set out in Government Resolution No. 25 dated February 5, 2025, this performance has broadly met expectations and, in some areas, exceeded them.
Several export categories posted high growth rates, notably industrial goods such as electronics, textiles, and footwear, along with agricultural products.
Notably, proactive market adaptation helped the textile and garment sector maintain positive momentum. In May 2025, textile exports reached 3.84 billion USD, a 6% year-on-year increase and the highest monthly export value ever recorded for May, surpassing the surge seen in May 2022 amid post-pandemic overordering. Vietnamese textile products are now present in 132 markets, with the US remaining the largest importer, accounting for 6.97 billion USD, up 17%.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, agricultural exports in the first six months of 2025 are estimated at 18.3 billion USD, up 16.8% year-on-year. Coffee stood out, with exports hitting 5.5 billion USD, more than double the 2.7 billion USD recorded in the same period last year and surpassing the full-year total of 5.4 billion USD in 2024. This is the first time Vietnam’s coffee industry has achieved such figures within the first half of a year.
Overall, strong performances across multiple sectors have contributed to the country’s robust export results in the first half of the year. These outcomes also underscore how Vietnamese enterprises are capitalising on free trade agreements to expand market access, boost competitiveness, improve product quality, and enhance supply chain sustainability.
Processing agricultural products for export (Photo: VNA)
Preparing adaptive scenarios for global market fluctuations
The MoIT noted that trade indicators continue to reflect a positive recovery trend, closely aligning with the country’s growth scenarios. However, external risks persist, including trade policies of major economies, global price volatility, and geopolitical tensions.
Vietnam has set a 2025 export growth target of 12%, equivalent to about 450 billion USD in export turnover. The target remains within reach if the current growth pace is sustained in the second half of the year.
Mai Thu Hien, Deputy Director of the MoIT’s Department of Planning and Finance, said the ministry will continue focusing on timely market information dissemination to industry associations, enabling businesses to adapt production plans and seek new orders. It will also provide regular updates on global market developments, foreign regulations, standards, and conditions that may impact Vietnam’s trade, along with relevant recommendations for local authorities, associations, and exporters.
The ministry will take the initiative in designing timely policies and response measures. MoIT departments are working together to develop forecast models, conduct market analysis, and prepare responsive strategies in case of rising global trade tensions. Concurrently, efforts to diversify export markets will be ramped up, targeting both new and traditional destinations.
The MoIT will also continue to maximise the benefits of existing trade agreements. It will collaborate with organisations that issue certificates of origin, issue warnings on high-risk goods vulnerable to origin fraud, and dispatch inspection teams when necessary.
Trade promotion activities will be intensified with a focus on professionalism and adaptability to evolving global conditions./.
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