Hanoi (VNA) – Vietnam is forecast to run the risk of electricityshortage during 2020-2030, heard the annual Vietnam Energy Forum held by theMinistry of Industry and Trade in Hanoi on August 9.

Calculations from the Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) showed that to meet thequick increase in electricity demand from now to 2030, the power sector needsto ensure an output of 265-278 billion kWh of electricity in 2020 and  from 572-632 billion kWh in the following tenyears.

Electricity demand expands between 10.3-11.3 percent during 2016-2020 but slowsdown to 8-8.5 percent during 2021-2030. However, it is still a tough task forthe sector to ensure sufficient electricity, especially when many powerprojects have been delayed.

Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Hoang Quoc Vuong stressed that powershortage may start right in the beginning years of the period, with severedeficiency predicted in 2022. In addition, electrical load growth rate could behigher than forecast.

“The electrical load growth rate is estimated at some 9 percent from now to 2025,and 8 percent afterwards. However, stronger economic development will result inhigher power demand. If electricity plant projects, especially those in majorgas-fuelled power complexes of O Mon, Dung Quat and Chu Lai, lag behind the setdeadline, the country will experience desperate shortage of electricity”, heunderlined.

Explosive growth in electrical load will also put pressure on the power sectorto upgrade infrastructure which requires a large amount of capital in thecontext of escalating public debt and inauspicious equitisation progress.

Other challenges faced by the sector include dependence on imported fuels, andenvironmental pollution, experts said.

According to former Minister of Science and Technology Nguyen Quan, ensuringenergy security is hard, particularly when the country has suspended nuclearpower projects but the development of other sources of energy, especially renewableenergy, is hindered by many unsolved problems.

Economist Tran Dinh Thien proposed another approach to power security, that isto manage power demand.

He stressed that it is necessary to price energy at suitable levels to prevent wastein consumption and attract investors.

Participants at the event agreed that besides encouragement of energy saving, asuitable pricing mechanism will help attract investment, and foster thedevelopment of renewable energies.-VNA